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Fed's Goolsbee: First effects of tariffs may be less imporant than impacts on expectations

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  • Seems jobs are settling around full employment
  • Appearance that inflation process has stalled is largely due to base effects
  • View of the economy is full employment, ongoing growth and inflation likely to fall to 2%
  • Added uncertainty makes the environment for the Fed foggier, a reason to slow the pace of cuts
  • Would watch PPI and listen to industrial contacts in monitoring tariff effects

He paints a good picture of the economy and that's particularly comforting given that Fed funds are at 4.25-4.50%.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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